Former President Trump is leading President Biden and Democrat-turned-independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in a three-way race, as per the latest Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey conducted on October 18-19, 2023. The survey, shared with The Hill, revealed Trump receiving 39 percent, Biden receiving 33 percent, and Kennedy receiving 19 percent in this scenario. An additional 9 percent indicated they were uncertain about their choice.
When the undecided voters were asked to make a choice, Trump received 42 percent support, Biden received 36 percent, and Kennedy received 22 percent. In a two-way race, Trump maintains a 5 percentage-point lead over Biden, with Trump at 46 percent and Biden at 41 percent. Fourteen percent of respondents remained unsure or didn’t express a preference.
It’s worth noting that Biden gained 1 percentage point since a similar survey conducted in September, while Trump gained 2 percentage points. However, Biden still leads in separate head-to-head matchups against Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley. Between Biden and DeSantis, Biden receives 44 percent while DeSantis receives 40 percent. In a face-off with Haley, the president garners 42 percent support, and Haley receives 38 percent.
Notably, Trump received the highest percentage of support among GOP voters when asked about their preference in the 2024 Republican primary. Trump commands 60 percent support in this context, while DeSantis received 11 percent, and all other candidates received less than 10 percent each, according to the poll.
Mark Penn, the co-director of the Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll, commented on the results, stating that “Trump’s polling continues to defy gravity both in the primary and the general election. Kennedy right now doesn’t change the result — an election held today would elect Donald Trump.” He also emphasized that there’s plenty of time and events to unfold, but Trump appears to have a significant edge at the starting line.
The Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll is a collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University and the Harris Poll. Please note that this response is based on the provided information and follows the guidelines outlined in your profile.
